Posted by
rockright25 on Wednesday, November 14, 2007 1:21:45 AM
Can the GOP win or are is the party just going to fall flat in 08? It depends on several factors:
1) Who wins the nomination for President for both parties
2) Iraq
3) Iran
4) The Economy
Each of these will play its own role in 08.
#1 The nominee
If its Rudy vs. Hillary count on a third party according to everything I have read on politico.com and else where the anti-war crowd is not happy with Hillary but the conservatives are not happy with Rudy I don't care what Pat Roberston says. Romney can be seen as a flip flopper to bad he knows how to use a veto pen....... Now Ron Paul say what you will some anti-war folks will vote for him just to end the war. And traditional conservatives like him allot! It would be interesting to see him debate a big government dem and talk about the constitution and not half to worry if he means it! Huckabee and Thompson hard to say how they would fare in a general election as they both have good and bad qualities. Obama and Edwards? Obama would probably win hands down but Edwards is damaged goods and is really just a better looking Kucinich.
#2 Iraq
If Iraq keeps on improving the Dems will be seen as wanting America to lose and this could back fire on them but if the war in Iraq does not improve Dems will move on to the attack. But even if the war does improve the hard left hates the war so much they are running against Pelosi and others for not doing enough to end the war. All the GOP can do is hope things keep on improving and that the voters like a winner.
#3 Iran
This is the wild. Hillary voted in the Senate to label Iranian Guard units as terrorist groups and embargo them. The whole group of Dems running for President hounded her. She seems more like a hawk but its hard to say if she is just playing to security moms or really means it. We know where the whole GOP field other then Ron Paul stands. The trick is will Israel wait for the world or the US to do something or will they handle it themselves? Iran announced some 3,000 centrifuges this past week. Its stepping closer to the brink.
#4 The Economy
Oil is up, house crisis, weak dollar but still Wal-Mart posted solid information the stock market is still high and unemployment is low. So which party can claim to do a better job on the economy? Thanks to Amanda Carpenter and Freedom works for providing the following stats on the new tax hike the dems are proposing:
"according to the Joint Committee on Taxation which forecasts tax revenues for the government, 94 million families earning between $20,000 and $200,000 will pay more taxes if Rangle's bill is passed and the Bush tax cuts expire as scheduled. "
Hmmmm 94 million new tax payers? If the GOP can frame this right well it could hurt the Dems. But with a host of other problems soaring energy prices this winter and a bad housing market will it be enough for the GOP? And are independents going to trust that the GOP has infact gone back to smaller government?? Its hard to say at the moment. Also the engergy situation is out of the US's hands and Chavez is working hard to ensure the price goes up why? So he can make tons of money but if it goes to far up their goes the world economy and it hurts him in the long run. Sorry I digress their....... The GOP must listen to those members that call for more transparency on Pork, and work to reduce spending. Their is right now an attempt to get a discharge in House to force a vote on each pork barrel project. If the Republican Steering Committee gets the votes it needs the Dems are in a pretty pickle.
Dave Obey (D) WI who is the Representative for the District where I went to college used to come on campus and rant against pork spending well now as head of the Apparitions Committee he calls it "equity" hmmmm yea not much change their at all.
Also their is one last huge issue and that is immigration. We saw this past summer what can happen when the politicians think about voting for amnesty and forget about securing the Borders. This will be the wedge issue of 08 I think maybe not in every race but in allot of races. And the GOP IF it can play its cards right can win here.
So is 08 all doom in gloom? Not as much as people think. Each week in politics is a life time. But time will tell. The Dems are out fundraising the Dems right now. According to Congresswoman Musgrave who I was able to meet with as part of my internship they are making Tom Delay look like saint. But if the GOP can get the right candidate which I think is Fred Thompson though I have noted he needs to get in gear or even a Ron Paul which would be might interesting I feel the GOP can rally can pull itself together.